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Chinese economy has brought a surprise to the world

Update Time:2016-03-15 14:32:47

 When the global economic outlook remains uncertain, second quarter of China's macroeconomic has brought a surprise to the world: GDP grew 7.9%, bottoming out obvious trend. Analysts generally this will change due to the Chinese government since the four quarter last year launched a large-scale economic stimulus plan, and expected the second half of China's economy will continue to maintain rapid growth.
    Morgan Stanley chief economist for Greater China Wang Qing says when accepting a reporter to interview, Chinese second quarter GDP growth meant 19% years of chain growth, this growth strength than many expected. He believes that its main cause is that the government continues to stimulate economic growth policy situation, make trillions of fiscal stimulus and expansionary monetary and credit policy to accelerate the realization of the true effect.
   Over the years, China's economy is mainly composed of foreign trade, investment and consumption" three carriages" pull, but since the fourth quarter of 2008onwards, by the American financial crisis triggered by the global economic recession led to Chinese export setback, ending 5 years of two digit growth. Last year the growth rate dropped to 9% in the fourth quarter, down to 6.8%, while the first quarter of this year economic growth continued to slow, down to the lowest level in ten years in the 6.1% quarter.
    In the external environment beyond the control of the situation, the Chinese government unveiled a stimulus package, attempts to stimulate investment and consumption of the two carriages, to support China's economic development. These policies include two years to achieve four trillion investment, ten industrial revitalization plan, structural tax cuts, consumer subsidies.
    Recently released the2009 semi-annual report data shows, Chinese economy completely reversed the7 consecutive quarter of decline, entered the recovery channel, walked out of a commonly used to represent the curve of smile. Second quarter economic growth rate of 7.9%, compared with an increase of 1.8 percentage points.
    In the first half of the year GDP growth of three big demand, investment contribution rate is highest, pull move GDP growth by 6.2 percentage points. Second is the final consumption, pull move GDP growth by 3.8 percentage points. While the net export down GDP growth by 2.9 percentage points.
    A number of other indicators also showed a good trend. The property market and the stock market the rapid rebound, electricity generation started growing, the manufacturing purchasing managers index continued to rise, consumption continues to maintain rapidder growth momentum, industry increases a value to return to the two digit growth, foreign direct investment to accelerate, price index decline slowed, finance income growth is started, a sharp decline in exports narrowed.
    For a lot of rebound phenomenon, Galaxy Securities economist Zuo Xiaolei thinks, growth or investment support, this point is also more obvious, apparent effects of the policy. Government investment to pull move economy to grow way is correct, it can be rapid and stable growth, restore confidence.
   Wang Qing believes that countries in the crisis have taken different policy, in response to the force and speed differences, which lead to their different recovery patterns after the crisis, China just is an appropriate example. The Chinese government actively policy responses will be" China 's strong balance sheet" has become a "beautiful profit table", so that the Chinese are different from those of the financial system or due to financial or external balance adverse to take strong fiscal or monetary stimulus policies of the state.
   He said, evaluation policy success need realistic comparison, the present reality is that China does not appear great depression, no massive business failure and massive unemployment, which prove that the policy was a success.
   Migrant workers employment is always the focus of attention at home and a broad. State Statistical Bureau spokesman Li Xiaochao said, the end of the two quarter, rural labor goes out Wu labour than a quarter increased by 3780000,2.6% growth. The first half of 2009obtain employment pressure and the second half of 2008compared to decrease.
   Wang Qing said that China 's rapid growth has boosted confidence. Chinese enterprise, industry anabiosis caused resource prices rise, be helpful for resource exports to the country's economic recovery. At the same time, in the face of financial crisis, the Chinese government is committed to maintaining the stability of RMB exchange rate, the benefit of international and domestic financial stability.
   International organizations have a positive view of China's economic development prospects, have raised the economic growth of China in 2009is expected. At the same time, foreign media also recognized China 's stimulus policies, Germany" focus" magazine published an article to point out in June, and the financial crisis in the battle, socialist China is becoming the world economists eyes " successful example".
   China in the first half of the year handed over a satisfactory exam paper, and for the second half of the trend of China's economy, most experts are optimistic. Wang Qing said, taking into account the first half of the year achievements, Chinese economy will be in the remaining months of this year, continue to present progressive, stable recovery, China's economy this year" and eight" no problem, and there are" red nine" strength.
   Morgan Stanley executive director and Hongkong and China strategist Lou Gang said, China's economic growth in the second half of state have been identified, as long as the Chinese government to maintain the stability of policy, the second half of the year are less likely to occur again.
   Experts think generally, keep the current policy stability is crucial.
 " I don't recommend early for adjusting the current policy, because there are uncertainties, exports and private investment is very weak still, still needs policy support. In the real economy is not fully restored, a premature change a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately easy monetary policy may lead to economy the two times to the downside risk." Wang Qing said.
 " If a perfect score of 10, I will give the Chinese government in coping with the crisis measures9 point play." Wang Qing said.
   Experts think, also a future how to obtain even as the key. The Chinese g oernment needs to be more flexible and more powerful policy to adjust the Chinese model of economic development, keep the stable growth of economy, make the government's commitment to the" expanding domestic demand, to maintain growth, structural adjustment, promote the people's livelihood" organic union rises.

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